The Starbucks Effect

Adam Epstein of Site Analytics, a New York-based firm that helps chains analyze data to choose new locations, says he does sometimes observe a "snowball effect," in which the creation of a subdivision gives a particular retailer the confidence to site a store nearby, which in turn boosts demand for houses, which draws in more retailers, etc.

This would seem a strange time to talk about Starbucks and Home Depot as leading indicators for local real estate purchases, since both chains have been struggling of late. In April, Starbucks founder Howard Schultzacknowledged that his company is "experiencing some difficulties as a result of some tough operating conditions in the U.S.," and last month Home Depot announced plans to close 15 existing stores and take 50 planned stores off the drawing board as its earnings shrink due to the ongoing housing crisis. Indeed, if Americans have learned anything as a result of the ongoing housing meltdown, one would hope it would be to buy a house because it's a good place to live and not based on the hope that its price will double or triple. Still, despite the current troubles, most buyers can't help looking for a home that seems likely to appreciate, and some buyers still view these companies' site decisions as a leading indicator of sorts.

Consider George Vaughan, an advertising salesman in Portland, Ore., who first heard about the concept he calls "the Home Depot Magic Rule" from his accountant a few years ago. The accountant had another client who'd been buying investment property in towns where Home Depot planned to build new stores. This client had bought a bunch of houses in such a town in Oregon; over eight years they appreciated from $120,000 to $400,000 apiece. Vaughan, whose accountant was urging him to buy some rental properties to improve his tax situation, zeroed in on an Oregon town called Hermiston, about three hours east of Portland, and ultimately bought two homes there.